When Will OpenAI Announce GPT-5?

According to Metaculus, a prominent forecasting platform, the community predicts that OpenAI will announce GPT-5 around April 9, 2025. This prediction is based on inputs from 781 forecasters.

The forecast shows:

• Lower estimate (25th percentile): January 22, 2025
• Median prediction: April 9, 2025
• Upper estimate (75th percentile): July 14, 2025

This timeline comes amid recent developments in AI, including:

• Reports of diminishing returns in current AI scaling laws
• OpenAI's continued improvements to existing models, such as bringing ChatGPT's Advanced Voice Mode to web platforms

The prediction aligns with related forecasts suggesting that GPT-5 would become available to the general public around April 27, 2025, shortly after its initial announcement.

While OpenAI hasn't officially confirmed GPT-5's development timeline, these community predictions offer valuable insights into expert expectations for the next major language model release.

Last updated: November 22, 2024